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Wednesday, 24 August 2016 10:15

Signs of Contagion Stress In Italy Are All Over The Place, Yet The Media Ignores It Featured

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Bloomberg reports:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel lauded Italian Premier Matteo Renzi’s economic policy as “courageous,” while signaling that European Union budget rules can’t be bent to help Italy boost growth. Merkel’s comments alongside Renzi and French President Francois Hollande hinted at one of the divisions between the leaders of the euro area’s three biggest economies as they met on Monday to plan the European Union’s way forward after Britons voted to leave the bloc. Italy’s economy stagnated in the second quarter, pushing off budget forecasts, and Renzi is pressing for greater flexibility by the European Commission.

“The stability pact has a lot of flexibility, which we have to apply in a smart way,” Merkel told reporters aboard the Italian aircraft carrier Giuseppe Garibaldi, where the leaders discussed topics from refugees, border controls and terrorism to jobs and investment. “Europe isn’t the most competitive place in the world in all sectors yet.”

 That's for sure. Brexit has not only increased uncertainty, it has promised to remove the EU's 2nd largest economy and its premier (and essentially only true) financial center. Worse yet, the sudden and extreme drop in the pound didn't make the action look nearly as apocalyptic as naysayers had promised, with retail actiivty, tourism and stocks literally jumping. This likely leads to other nations wlling to push their own individual agendas. The EC and IMF have a horrible track record of forcasting these things, reference So, Brexit. And... Czexit, Pexit, Frexit as EU referendum CONTAGION sweeps Europe amid political quake.

Making matters worse, fast forward 6 years or so and the IMF/EC are not more accurate (still overly optimistic, as usual).

Italy IMF forecast GDP

Lastly, Italy's banking system will be drag that turns into a bust. Italian banks are laden with bad loans, high NPAs, and dangerous derivative admixtures. Oh yeah, don't believe that "notional value" defense, either. Just look at the basic math...

Banco Popular Research teaser3

Banco Popular Research teaser4The only real potential salve would be for them to earn their way out of the mess. That's not going to happen with negative interest rates and a recessionary economy.

P1-BY264 NEGRAT 16U 20160808131805

The banks are in bad enough shape to set off a true chain reaction. Reference our extensive report and analysis (over 2 hours worth) in Veritaseum University, aptly called European Bank Contagion Assessment, Forensic Analysis & Valuation. We have two very large sections on EU bank and financial institution contagion, and have covered 6 banks thus far. We are working on several more institutions as I type this.

This is very, very important for the ECB has stress tested its banks but has refused to release the results. Don't confuse this with the stress test results from the EBA, who refused to give a pass/fail to any bank. Regulators NEVER refuse to release good news. Never fear, we're stress testing the banks for you (the same team that predicted Bear Stearns, Lehman, CountryWide and WaMu). I would be highly suspect of the EBA results for they failed to mention how unrealistic the Deutsche Bank reporting was, nor the derivative accounting of many banks that we noticed. Even more suspect is the ECB's silence.

Those of you in the sell side blockchain space, expect those budgets to dry up very quickly over the next year as banks start to exhibit some real problems!

All those who are interested in this topic, the European Bank Contagion Assessment, Forensic Analysis & Valuation course goes into this in depth. I wil be adding additional Deutsche Bank and contagion content over the next 48 hours as well.



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