Monday, 25 September 2017

C Corporate Valuation & Equity Research

European Bank Contagion Assessment, Forensic Analysis & Valuation

  • Released: 2016-08-10 12:30:34
  • Level: Advanced
  • Duration:
  • Price: $ 1,200
Certificate:

No certificate is given for this course

Table of Contents

Viewed
Level
Susceptible Bank 1: Financial Modeling

Description

This is much more a complete analysis of the coming Pan-European Banking Contagion than it is a course, but it is highly educational for all nonetheless. It was created by the same team that accurately predicted:

  1. The housing market crash in the spring of 2006 and publicly in September of 2007:Correction, and further thoughts on the topic and How Far Will US Home Prices Drop?
  2. Home builders falling and their grossly misleading use of off balance sheet structures to conceal excessive debt in November of 2007 (not a single sell side analyst that we know of made mention of this very material point in the industry): Lennar, Voodoo Accounting & Other Things of Mystery and Myth!
  3. The collapse of Bear Stearns in January 2008 (2 months before Bear Stearns fell, while trading in the $100s and still had buy ratings and investment grade AA or better from the ratings agencies): Is this the Breaking of the Bear? 

  4. The warning of Lehman Brothers before anyone had a clue!!! (February through May 2008): Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise? Thursday, February 21st, 2008 | Web chatter on Lehman Brothers Sunday, March 16th, 2008 
  5. The fall of commercial real estate in general (September of 2007) and the collapse of General Growth Properties [nation's 2nd largest mall owner] in particular (November 2007):
    1. Will the commercial real estate market fall? Of course it will.
    2. Do you remember when I said Commercial Real Estate was sure to fall?
    3. The Commercial Real Estate Crash Cometh, and I know who is leading the way!
    4. Generally Negative Growth in General Growth Properties - GGP Part II
    5. General Growth Properties & the Commercial Real Estate Crash, pt III - The Story Gets Worse

We go in depth to illustrate:

  • the source and causes of the contagion - both macro and fundamental;
  • identify ground zero;
  • identify and quantify the risks of the banks and institutions most likely to be impaired and/or collapse;
  • value all institutions involved for profitable short plays and/or long vulture investments;
  • included liver, very (very) advanced online financial, valuation and derivatve stress test models that users can tweak and input their own assumptions in.

This is essentially the stress test that the ECB has failed to deliver to the public.

Price

Plan Name Price
Unlimited: $ 1200

Teacher

Manish

Manish

Reggie Middleton

Who is Reggie Middleton?

As per Wikipedia:

Reggie Middleton is an American financial analyst who is the founder and editor of the financial blog, Boom Bust Blog.[1]


Until 2011, he wrote about financial evaluation and the global financial crisis at the 
Huffington Post.[11] According toForbes, Middleton "combines self-promotion with meticulous financial analysis that is often delivered with a whiff of bathroom humor".[12]He regularly appears on CNBC,[2] Bloomberg[3][4][5] and on the Keiser Report[6][7] to discuss his research and opinions, and has also been interviewed on CNN[8] and BBC World News.[9][10]

Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, a Toronto firm that manages a fund of $5 billion, said of Middleton: “His work is so detailed, so accurate, it's among the best in the world".[13]

Biography[edit]

Middleton is an alumnus of the Howard University with a bachelor's degree in business management.[14][15]

He now resides in New York City.

Career[edit]

After graduation from university, Middleton worked for Prudential Insurance and trained in the sale of financial products. Since then, he was worked in the fields of financial securities and risk management. He was also a significant investor in residential real estate.

Middleton is known for making predictions about the crash of markets and large financial institutions long before they occur. Aaron Elstein of Crain's New York Business said "Mr. Middleton has been startlingly accurate in the past. He forecast the collapse of the housing market in 2007, and in early 2008 warned of the demise of Bear Stearns weeks before it happened. Earlier this year, he said that Ireland's finances were in terrible shape long before Standard & Poor's got around to downgrading that nation's credit rating."[16]

I

 

n 2008, he founded Boom Bust Blog, and claims to have over 3000 paying subscribers.[17]

In February 2013, he won CNBC's first-ever stock draft competition, beating out six other traders.[18]

Notable Calls, Investments and Analyses

2007

In 2007, Reggie Middleton predicted the collapse of the US housing market,[19] specifically warning of potential failure in exposed banks such as Bear Stearns, Countrywide and Washington Mutual as well as prominent publicly traded home building companies including DHI, Horton and Lennar.[20] In addition, he delved into the homebuilding industry with a rare specificity in "Lennar, Voodoo Accounting & Other Things of Mystery and Myth!",[21] where he brought to the attention of the public potentially abusive use of off balance vehicles. He called for collapse of the US commercial real estate market in November 2007 [22] and GGP (General Growth Properties, then the second largest commercial mall REIT in the country) in particular,[23] who sported an investment grade rating and $60 per share equity price at the time of Reggie's prediction only to file for bankruptcy less than a year later. Reggie Middleton also actively opined on the collapse of US monoline insurers, whose share prices dropped to single digits from triple digits after Middleton's prognostications [24][25]

2008

Reggie Middleton is well known for being one of the very few to call the collapse of Bear Stearns in January 2008 [26] and the collapse of Lehman Brothers.[27]Widely known as a contrarian investor, he has gone against mainstream sentiment quite often, most notably in his call to short Goldman Sachs [28] and Apple in 2011.[29] He went bearish on the entire US regional banking sector in 2008, naming 32 banks which he felt were at risk [30]

2010

One of his most controversial calls was the impending financial collapse of a large portion of the European Union, which at the time of the initial call was highly contrarian and considered overly bearish.[31] After giving a presentation of his thoughts and analysis as the keynote speaker at ING's Valuation Conference in Amsterdam,[32] no less than six EU nations have sought bailouts due to dire financial straits. Although known primarily for his work in financial, real estate and banking matters, Middleton forecast the impending "mobile computing wars" in which he claimed Apple, Google and Microsoft will battle for supremacy in the cellular handset and tablet market.[33] He accurately called the fall of Research in Motion (RIMM), the maker of the Blackberry, now known simply as Blackberry, while it was trading over $40 per share.[34]

2011 and 2012

Reggie Middleton's most notorious prediction was the collapse of Apple's share price [35] and its loss of significant market share to Google.[36] Apple dropped nearly 40% in price while Google came close to doubling [37]

2013

Middleton has exposed cases of material omissions and misrepresentations in regard to EU bank's financial reporting, particularly as relates to debt, borrowings and encumbrances.[38]

References

  1. Jump up^  http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100418/SUB/304189954
  2. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VS6z7Db6cx0&feature=player_embedded
  3. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLKYxfxHpuY&feature=player_embedded
  4. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GuGnWcQios
  5. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dHPOWjZaTQ
  6. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K7LhFY_06RY
  7. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6B4lyaoUPA
  8. Jump up^  http://edition.cnn.com/video/?/video/business/2009/05/07/dcl.bloggers.banks.stress.test.cnn
  9. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HqB1y45ppI&feature=player_embedded
  10. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=safSnUzTYfI&feature=player_embedded
  11. Jump up^  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/reggie-middleton
  12. Jump up^  http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/01/short-stocks-middleton-personal-finance-investing-ideas_reggie.html
  13. Jump up^  http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100418/SUB/304189954
  14. Jump up^  http://www.forbes.com/2009/03/01/short-stocks-middleton-personal-finance-investing-ideas_reggie.html
  15. Jump up^  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/reggie-middleton
  16. Jump up^  http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100829/SUB/308299988
  17. Jump up^  http://www.boombustblog.com/press-room
  18. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VS6z7Db6cx0
  19. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/Will-the-commercial-real-estate-market-fall-Of-course-it-will.html
  20. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/4
  21. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/141
  22. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/Will-the-commercial-real-estate-market-fall-Of-course-it-will.html
  23. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/BoomBustBlog/The-Commercial-Real-Estate-Crash-Cometh-and-I-know-who-is-leading-the-way.html
  24. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/43
  25. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/51
  26. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/128
  27. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/154
  28. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/1518
  29. Jump up^  http://www.boombustblog.com/blog/item/6222-deconstructing-the-most-accurate-apple-analysis-ever-made-share-price-market-share-strategy-and-all
  30. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/363
  31. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/3201
  32. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LdGdyEQYoe8
  33. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/3495
  34. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/reggie-in-the-news/item/2947-2947
  35. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=8bJK95ECyBA
  36. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=VS6z7Db6cx0
  37. Jump up^  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TDvN12Mmb8
  38. Jump up^  http://boombustblog.com/blog/item/9049-are-you-about-to-get-cyprusd-in-ireland?-when-a-single-words-worth-billions-of-euros

External links[edit]

Requirements

Others:

This is an intermediate to advanced course. If you are not familiar with stock valuations, we suggest you take the beginner valuation class at a bare minimum.
Quiz Status
Viewed
Duration
Level
Susceptible Bank 1: Financial Modeling
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