Friday, 19 April 2019

A Analysis

 

In continuing my PSA on well funded bitcoin startup valuations (reference Imy valuation estimate of Bitpay, a rapidly growing payment processor), I bring a forensic analysis and valuation of Coinbase, likely the 2nd largest money exchanger in the bitcoin business.

 Valuation Case 2- COINBASE

Revenues for Coinbase is calculated based on global monthly transaction size (US$) of the company. Annualizing the transaction resulted in Total transactions for 2014  

As per the information available, Coinbase charges 1% as transaction fee resulting in the revenue of the company.    

Table 3- Revenue Forecast, US$

 
 

2014F

2015F

2016F

 

Annual Transactions*, US$

1,085,488,973

     1,248,312,319

     1,435,559,166

 

Transaction Fee (%)

1.0%

1.0%

1.0%

 

Total Revenue

        10,854,890

    12,483,123

    14,355,592

 

*Growth assumed under moderate scenario

 

As per the news for funding in Coinbase, the valuation of Coinbase ranged between US$140 million – US$1 billion. Based on weighted average (by applying 70% weight to the lower figure in the range), the above valuation is derived at US$398 million. Applying the multiples at which Bitpay and Circle are estimated to have been funded recently (using average revenue multiple of Bitpay and Circle), the valuation based on 2015 and 2016 revenues is as shown below:

Table 4- Relative valuation

Particulars

2015F

2016F

Revenue ($)

    12,483,123

    14,355,592

Multiple Comparable- Bitpay and Circle

16.0x

13.5x

Valuation (US$mn)

                      200.31

                      194.23

 

Of course, we feel that these rapidly growing payment processor companies, although now profitable and expanding their reach like weeds, are barely touching the tip of what the Bitcoin industry will look like just two years into the future. 

Wall street, pay attention!!!

Veritaseum short summmary pic - public.docx Page 01

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See also:

  1. Payment Processors, Patents and a Dollop of Healthy Paranoia
  2. Margin Compression Is Coming in the Payment Processing Space As $100 Million Pours Into Startups
  3. Bitcoin Myth Busting 101

 

Continuing on the margin compression theme originally laid out in Margin Compression Is Coming in the Payment Processing Space As $100 Million Pours Into Startups, I illustrate mathematically how the bit startups in the Bitcoin space will be forced to reach up the foodchain rungs faster than many think.

Valuation of BITPAY, COINBASE and CIRCLE

This is an exercise to arrive at valuation of three of the well-known Bitcoin applications that have recently been in news for funding from investors. Unlike high-level valuations assigned to these companies we analyzed revenues in much deeper detail, segregating value drivers and revenue streams and projecting them for the foreseeable future. This thus has enabled a more granular valuation than the high-level valuation that we see in the news for these companies in their recent funding rounds. 

Valuation Case 1- BITPAY

BITPAY revenue plan is based on monthly subscription model wherein the company charges $30, $300 and custom negotiated rates that are not published, under different subscription plans.  Currently, Bitpay claims ~30,000 subscribers.

For the purpose of calculating revenue from each plan, total subscribers (30,000) have been segregated under each plan based on their probability of occurrence (and put a nominal fee for ad hoc, a la carte and custom services on the higher ends of the range). Multiplying probable subscribers with subscription fee resulted in total revenue for the company. 

Table 1- Revenue Forecast, US$

 

Subscription Plans

2014F

2015F

2016F

 

     Plan 1

         10,260,000

         11,850,300

         13,310,257

 

     Plan 2

            4,320,000

            4,944,240

            5,501,950

 

     Plan 3

         10,260,000

         11,634,840

         12,826,248

 

     Plan 4

            5,400,000

            6,066,900

            6,625,055

 

Total Revenue

         30,240,000

         34,496,280

         38,263,510

 

As per the news for funding in Bitpay, its valuation is estimated at $160 million. If we apply multiple at which Coinbase and Circle are estimated to have been funded recently (using average revenue multiple of Coinbase and Circle), the valuation based on 2015 and 2016 revenues is as shown below:

  Table 2- Relative valuation

Particulars

2015F

2016F

Revenue ($)

         34,496,280

         38,263,510

Multiple Comparable- Coinbase and Circle

29.7x

25.3x

Valuation (US$mn)

                   1,023.47

                      968.13

Now, those of you who pay attention are likely to query, "Looks interesting... A billion dollar company within two years, but why is the valuation actually droppingin the 3rd year?". Well, this brings back to the article "Margin Compression Is Coming in the Payment Processing Space As $100 Million Pours Into Startups". You see, Bitpay and its contemporaries are growing like gangbusters (~6% to 10% per month!), but they are selling service with relatively low barriers to entry, and a lot of capital and competition climbing over the bow.

High competitionin a liquidiy bubble yields low, zero or negative (loss leader) margins. Valuations will follow suit, even as revenues and growth rates continue climb.

Bitpay revenue multiple forecast

If I am correct, then Bitpay (as well as contemporary start-up competitor Circle and Coinbase, in addition to more entrenched competitions Master Card, Visa, American Express and PayPal) will offer plain vanilla payment processing at negative margins in an attempt have it serve as a loss leader to rope merchants (etc.) into high margin, better defensible products and services. Cue...

Veritaseum Short public summary

picsay-1400512647Reggie Middleton discussion UltraCoin at the 2014 FinTech conference at Dechert LLP.Coindesk asks "Do Patent Filings from eBay and Western Union Pose a Threat to Bitcoin?" I feel the question is in and of itself missing the point. To explain this fully, I have to share a little bit about myself, particularly my weaknesses. I'm the type of person who is very knowledgeable about his strengths and his weaknesses, but sometimes I don't see my strength for what it is, and that is tantamount to a weakness in a highly competitive environment.

Case in point, in discussing whether or not competing patents have been filed for smart contract transacion processes by those who seek to be in my space with my contract engineer (a very skilled software architect and IP attorney), I displayed what I considered a healthy level of paranoid concern. I found it hard to believe that no one bothered to patent the most innovative, disruptive and groundbreaking aspect of this new crop of digital currencies - the ability to program them. As those who follow me know, I've spent a lot of resources developing, designing, refining and patenting advanced smart contracts (see How Reggie Middleton's Start-up Patented The Future of Global Finance!). I actually found it highly unlikely that no one had come up with this idea before me. Matt (my contracts engineer) said, "You know, it actually takes an uncanny amount of vision to have seen the scope of this stuff and act upon it, not to mention to have done so 6 months ago. Not many people are like you." Right then and there, it hit me. People really do not see things the way I do! 

Most know me from my prescient calls in banking, finance, real estate and tech (see Who is Reggie Middleton?). I've demonstrated a knack for seeing future trends and determining when things (such as valuations and opportunities) are out of whack. With that being said, the big media interest in Bitcoin combined with the increasing VC interest in Bitcoin companies (reference BitPay Gets $30 Million in Venture Capital Funding) is a very good thing for the industry, but also illustrates shortsigtedness in both the investment community and many practitioners.

The problem with the processors...

When bitcoin is as easy as PayPal to use then it will be on the path to mass adoption, but to assume that’s the most lucrative path to take in bitcoin company private equity investment begs the wrong question. Here’s the strategic landscape as I see it.

Bitcoin is very inexpensive to use as a transfer agent. A transaction may be safely sent without fees if these conditions are met (this is excerpted directly from the Bitcoin Wiki, verbatum):

  1. It is smaller than 1,000 bytes.
  2. All outputs are 0.01 BTC or larger.
  3. Its priority is large enough

Otherwise, the reference implementation will round up the transaction size to the next thousand bytes and add a fee of 0.1 mBTC (0.0001 BTC) per thousand bytes. Note that a typical transaction is 500 bytes, so the typical transaction fee for low-priority transactions is 0.1 mBTC (0.0001 BTC), regardless of the number of bitcoins sent.

Bitcoin as of 5/18/2014 is $444.74m, thus the fee for this transaction is roughly 4 cents, if not outright free. If a processor is transferring $10,000 on behalf of a customer, whether at one time or 100 times throughout the course of a month, the processor’s fee cost would range from $0 to $4, while the processor would likely charge (as of the date of this writing, $0 to $100). The traditional processors such a Visa or Paypal  would charge hundreds (as in up to 50x more!) for the same deal!

That 25x markup on the high end is significant (even for the Bitcoin companies), and ripe for disintermediation itself (that's right, the disintermediaing agents are poised for disintermediaion). Particularly once the UX of Bitcoin evolves, as email and web browsing did, and users realize how easy and cheap it is to jump onto the blockchain and do this stuff themselves.

Even assuming users don’t follow the historical model of those that left proprietary walled gardens (think AOL) and jumped directly into the open World Wide Web themselves, there are no material barriers to entry to enter into the processing business other than potentially a money transmitter license. The only material barrier, hence the business opportunity, is that Bitcoin is cumbersome to use. As the UI/UX polish increases and the amount of competitors in the space increase, the lower the prices charged - hence the margins - will be.

With such low barriers to entry and potentially humongous markups to exploit, what do you think happens next? The wild, untamed hordes of competitors swoop down upon the masses, and we have a concerted race to zero, and likely negative margin as competitors attempt to make processing a loss leader to draw users into the folds of richer, higher margin services!!!

 The race to marginal zero, then negative, does not make a strong business plan. So, what do these companies such as BitPay, Coinbase, etc. do once that point is reached (rather quickly)? They look to value added (high margin) services on top of their low margin, utility-like payment infrastructures.

Enter smart contracts and the true use of programmability in the crypto-currencies. The easiest and the likely first implementation of such will be multi-sig operations which allow multiple parties to share funds without having to worry about trusting and single party in a transaction. Our ZeroTrust Letters of Credit (patent pending) is just such a product. It allows for multiple parties to tranfer payment for simple and complex transactions contingent upon the mutual agreed upon successful execution of said transactions. This is done without the parties having to:

  1. Know each other
  2. Trust each other
  3. Have any form of proximity to each other;

and can be done using micropayments all the way up to multi-million dollar macro payments. The barriers to this business are much higher. For one, it takes more than just programming code. You have to be able to congeal the legal logic of the conventional law in equity contract into code. You have to be able to congeal the business logic into code, and you have to be able to implement it into the blockchain or whatever other underlying transmission mechanism you choose to utilize.

Once the race to negative zero is in full swing, a few of the wiser companies will wake-up and say "Hey, there has to be a better way, and we think we found it!". It is at that point Reggie Middleton's UltraCoin products and assets will shine. It is not hard to foresee that the entrenched companies (Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Western Union) may enter a bidding war with the new comers armed with material VC warchests (much more than we're seeing with $30 million investments of today - all over the guys who had the foresight to see the next evolutionary step in plain vanilla payments - smart transactions and self-executing digital contracts and transactions.

We're actively looking for financial and intellectual capital. If you, as an accredited investor, are looking for an opportunity in the higher end of the digital currency space, I think we should talk. In addition, if you are a higher level Java/C++ developer willing to take risk, we need to talk. I'm available at reggie at ultra-coin.com.

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