In continuing my PSA on well funded bitcoin startup valuations (reference Imy valuation estimate of Bitpay, a rapidly growing payment processor), I bring a forensic analysis and valuation of Coinbase, likely the 2nd largest money exchanger in the bitcoin business.
Valuation Case 2- COINBASE
Revenues for Coinbase is calculated based on global monthly transaction size (US$) of the company. Annualizing the transaction resulted in Total transactions for 2014
As per the information available, Coinbase charges 1% as transaction fee resulting in the revenue of the company.
Table 3- Revenue Forecast, US$ |
||||||
2014F |
2015F |
2016F |
||||
Annual Transactions*, US$ |
1,085,488,973 |
1,248,312,319 |
1,435,559,166 |
|||
Transaction Fee (%) |
1.0% |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|||
Total Revenue |
10,854,890 |
12,483,123 |
14,355,592 |
|||
*Growth assumed under moderate scenario |
||||||
As per the news for funding in Coinbase, the valuation of Coinbase ranged between US$140 million – US$1 billion. Based on weighted average (by applying 70% weight to the lower figure in the range), the above valuation is derived at US$398 million. Applying the multiples at which Bitpay and Circle are estimated to have been funded recently (using average revenue multiple of Bitpay and Circle), the valuation based on 2015 and 2016 revenues is as shown below: Table 4- Relative valuation |
||||||
Particulars |
2015F |
2016F |
||||
Revenue ($) |
12,483,123 |
14,355,592 |
||||
Multiple Comparable- Bitpay and Circle |
16.0x |
13.5x |
||||
Valuation (US$mn) |
200.31 |
194.23 |
||||
Of course, we feel that these rapidly growing payment processor companies, although now profitable and expanding their reach like weeds, are barely touching the tip of what the Bitcoin industry will look like just two years into the future.
Wall street, pay attention!!!
See also:
Continuing on the margin compression theme originally laid out in Margin Compression Is Coming in the Payment Processing Space As $100 Million Pours Into Startups, I illustrate mathematically how the bit startups in the Bitcoin space will be forced to reach up the foodchain rungs faster than many think.
Valuation of BITPAY, COINBASE and CIRCLE
This is an exercise to arrive at valuation of three of the well-known Bitcoin applications that have recently been in news for funding from investors. Unlike high-level valuations assigned to these companies we analyzed revenues in much deeper detail, segregating value drivers and revenue streams and projecting them for the foreseeable future. This thus has enabled a more granular valuation than the high-level valuation that we see in the news for these companies in their recent funding rounds.
Valuation Case 1- BITPAY
BITPAY revenue plan is based on monthly subscription model wherein the company charges $30, $300 and custom negotiated rates that are not published, under different subscription plans. Currently, Bitpay claims ~30,000 subscribers.
For the purpose of calculating revenue from each plan, total subscribers (30,000) have been segregated under each plan based on their probability of occurrence (and put a nominal fee for ad hoc, a la carte and custom services on the higher ends of the range). Multiplying probable subscribers with subscription fee resulted in total revenue for the company.
Table 1- Revenue Forecast, US$ |
||||||
Subscription Plans |
2014F |
2015F |
2016F |
|||
Plan 1 |
10,260,000 |
11,850,300 |
13,310,257 |
|||
Plan 2 |
4,320,000 |
4,944,240 |
5,501,950 |
|||
Plan 3 |
10,260,000 |
11,634,840 |
12,826,248 |
|||
Plan 4 |
5,400,000 |
6,066,900 |
6,625,055 |
|||
Total Revenue |
30,240,000 |
34,496,280 |
38,263,510 |
|||
As per the news for funding in Bitpay, its valuation is estimated at $160 million. If we apply multiple at which Coinbase and Circle are estimated to have been funded recently (using average revenue multiple of Coinbase and Circle), the valuation based on 2015 and 2016 revenues is as shown below: Table 2- Relative valuation |
||||||
Particulars |
2015F |
2016F |
||||
Revenue ($) |
34,496,280 |
38,263,510 |
||||
Multiple Comparable- Coinbase and Circle |
29.7x |
25.3x |
||||
Valuation (US$mn) |
1,023.47 |
968.13 |
Now, those of you who pay attention are likely to query, "Looks interesting... A billion dollar company within two years, but why is the valuation actually droppingin the 3rd year?". Well, this brings back to the article "Margin Compression Is Coming in the Payment Processing Space As $100 Million Pours Into Startups". You see, Bitpay and its contemporaries are growing like gangbusters (~6% to 10% per month!), but they are selling service with relatively low barriers to entry, and a lot of capital and competition climbing over the bow.
High competitionin a liquidiy bubble yields low, zero or negative (loss leader) margins. Valuations will follow suit, even as revenues and growth rates continue climb.
If I am correct, then Bitpay (as well as contemporary start-up competitor Circle and Coinbase, in addition to more entrenched competitions Master Card, Visa, American Express and PayPal) will offer plain vanilla payment processing at negative margins in an attempt have it serve as a loss leader to rope merchants (etc.) into high margin, better defensible products and services. Cue...
Yesterday, I did a radio interview with Benzinga. In it I busted myths about Apple, Bitcoin and Coins in general (ABCs). Listen to the interview below and the info sheets afterwards and let me know if you knew this stuff was possible with today's tech - and Apple!
As for Apple...
And more on http://Ultra-Coin.com...
Why am I so bullish on Bitcoin? Note: this is not an offer to buy or solicitation for securities and is presented for illustrative purposes only.
As we roll out Veritaseum's UltraCoin ZeroTrust Smart Contracts, I'll be posting much more on "the new way of doing business".
After an interesting discussion with those in my laboratory, I've decided to apply the forensic analysis team from BoomBustBlog to the privately funded companies in the Bitcoin space. See my post from yesterday for much of the reason why.
As clearly predicted yesterday, the better funded of the payment processors will initiate a pricing blood bath they'd likely kill for...
From PayPal's subsite on Mass Payments:
As you can see, PayPal has already imbued its service with much of the attributes that are being offered by the Bitcoin payment processors. They also have a material advantage as of right now, a massive installed base.
I also cannot emphasize enough how damaging the all too necessary customer service option is to margins. You see, the problem is most service companies don't put enough into customer service and handholding of the customer. From an optimal perspective, this should actually be part of the marketing and sales process, but it's often either non-existent or implemented as an after thought after enough customers start bitching and complaining, or worse yet (and likely most often the case) leaving!
As a company with mature management, it appears as if PayPal is trying to head this off at the pass as it attempts to change consumer behavior and prod them into adopting its new electronic currency payment system...
Now, let's compare PayPal to the newly funded Bitcoin payment processors...
- See more at: http://www.crunchbase.com/organization/bitpay#sthash.yvlqpNtr.dpuf
An interesting departure from the per transaction/fee model, Bitpay implemented a subscription system which benefits those customers who perform a large quantity of relatively small transactions moreso than those who process large orders.
I calculate Bitpay's most recent $30 million series A round to have been at around 9.2x sales, valuing the company at $160 million. This is a guestimate, of course, since I do not have access to internal numbers.
Next we have Coinbase...
- See more at: http://www.crunchbase.com/organization/coinbase#sthash.CD8IPTp6.dpuf
There's also Circle, founded by Mr. Allaire of Coldfusion fame (sold to Adobe Systems).
- See more at: http://www.crunchbase.com/organization/nfc-direct#sthash.dd0DaxHc.dpuf
Circle has not publicly launched yet but promises to bring a new level of simplicity and user-friendliness to the bitcoin payment ecosystem, concentrating more on a banking paradigm then the technical bent that bitcoin is known to represent. This is all you need ot know about the Circle business model as it relates to this discussion of impending margin compression...
Free=Margin Compression!
Let's see how this plays out for customers. The most lucrative segments for this industry is the SME (small and medium business enterprises) who process anywhere between 10 and 1,000 transactions per month. Why? Because there are simply more SMEs than there are big companies in the world. Let's see what the two biggest bitcoin processors look like when stacked up against PayPal's Mass Pay product for the SME market...
Of course, the Bitcoin transactions are likely a loss leader for additional, value added services for many companies in the not too distant future. As a matter of fact, I feel that the payment space will quickly become commoditized by Bitcoin technology - forcing these companies and many more (I'm talking about you Mastercard, Visa and Western Union) to innovate and offer significantly and materially better value for the buck.
Imagine what this competitive landscape will look like when Mastercard, Visa, American Express, Discover and Western Union jump into the fray. Of course, before that a much greater portion of the VC and private equity community will wake up and realize the opportunity in Bitcoin to pour more cash into it than sugar into a Bubble gum machine (emphasis on "Bubble"). The key is to get in early, and get in right. But how does one do that and where will this tale of uber margin compression end?
Well, the research report from which this info is being prepared will be offered to accredited and instituional investors starting next week, at least those who have an interest in UltraCoin.
My next article on this topic will explicitly illustrate how UltraCoin can assist ALL players (that's right, including PayPal, Bitpay, Circle, Coinbase, Mastercard, Visa, American Express, Discover and Western Union) as well as their direct customers, in climbing up both the food chain and the value proposition ladder - thus rapidly repairing the margin compression damage they are about to bring upon thier business models.
Reggie Middleton discussion UltraCoin at the 2014 FinTech conference at Dechert LLP.Coindesk asks "Do Patent Filings from eBay and Western Union Pose a Threat to Bitcoin?" I feel the question is in and of itself missing the point. To explain this fully, I have to share a little bit about myself, particularly my weaknesses. I'm the type of person who is very knowledgeable about his strengths and his weaknesses, but sometimes I don't see my strength for what it is, and that is tantamount to a weakness in a highly competitive environment.
Case in point, in discussing whether or not competing patents have been filed for smart contract transacion processes by those who seek to be in my space with my contract engineer (a very skilled software architect and IP attorney), I displayed what I considered a healthy level of paranoid concern. I found it hard to believe that no one bothered to patent the most innovative, disruptive and groundbreaking aspect of this new crop of digital currencies - the ability to program them. As those who follow me know, I've spent a lot of resources developing, designing, refining and patenting advanced smart contracts (see How Reggie Middleton's Start-up Patented The Future of Global Finance!). I actually found it highly unlikely that no one had come up with this idea before me. Matt (my contracts engineer) said, "You know, it actually takes an uncanny amount of vision to have seen the scope of this stuff and act upon it, not to mention to have done so 6 months ago. Not many people are like you." Right then and there, it hit me. People really do not see things the way I do!
Most know me from my prescient calls in banking, finance, real estate and tech (see Who is Reggie Middleton?). I've demonstrated a knack for seeing future trends and determining when things (such as valuations and opportunities) are out of whack. With that being said, the big media interest in Bitcoin combined with the increasing VC interest in Bitcoin companies (reference BitPay Gets $30 Million in Venture Capital Funding) is a very good thing for the industry, but also illustrates shortsigtedness in both the investment community and many practitioners.
When bitcoin is as easy as PayPal to use then it will be on the path to mass adoption, but to assume that’s the most lucrative path to take in bitcoin company private equity investment begs the wrong question. Here’s the strategic landscape as I see it.
Bitcoin is very inexpensive to use as a transfer agent. A transaction may be safely sent without fees if these conditions are met (this is excerpted directly from the Bitcoin Wiki, verbatum):
Otherwise, the reference implementation will round up the transaction size to the next thousand bytes and add a fee of 0.1 mBTC (0.0001 BTC) per thousand bytes. Note that a typical transaction is 500 bytes, so the typical transaction fee for low-priority transactions is 0.1 mBTC (0.0001 BTC), regardless of the number of bitcoins sent.
Bitcoin as of 5/18/2014 is $444.74m, thus the fee for this transaction is roughly 4 cents, if not outright free. If a processor is transferring $10,000 on behalf of a customer, whether at one time or 100 times throughout the course of a month, the processor’s fee cost would range from $0 to $4, while the processor would likely charge (as of the date of this writing, $0 to $100). The traditional processors such a Visa or Paypal would charge hundreds (as in up to 50x more!) for the same deal!
That 25x markup on the high end is significant (even for the Bitcoin companies), and ripe for disintermediation itself (that's right, the disintermediaing agents are poised for disintermediaion). Particularly once the UX of Bitcoin evolves, as email and web browsing did, and users realize how easy and cheap it is to jump onto the blockchain and do this stuff themselves.
Even assuming users don’t follow the historical model of those that left proprietary walled gardens (think AOL) and jumped directly into the open World Wide Web themselves, there are no material barriers to entry to enter into the processing business other than potentially a money transmitter license. The only material barrier, hence the business opportunity, is that Bitcoin is cumbersome to use. As the UI/UX polish increases and the amount of competitors in the space increase, the lower the prices charged - hence the margins - will be.
With such low barriers to entry and potentially humongous markups to exploit, what do you think happens next? The wild, untamed hordes of competitors swoop down upon the masses, and we have a concerted race to zero, and likely negative margin as competitors attempt to make processing a loss leader to draw users into the folds of richer, higher margin services!!!
The race to marginal zero, then negative, does not make a strong business plan. So, what do these companies such as BitPay, Coinbase, etc. do once that point is reached (rather quickly)? They look to value added (high margin) services on top of their low margin, utility-like payment infrastructures.
Enter smart contracts and the true use of programmability in the crypto-currencies. The easiest and the likely first implementation of such will be multi-sig operations which allow multiple parties to share funds without having to worry about trusting and single party in a transaction. Our ZeroTrust Letters of Credit (patent pending) is just such a product. It allows for multiple parties to tranfer payment for simple and complex transactions contingent upon the mutual agreed upon successful execution of said transactions. This is done without the parties having to:
and can be done using micropayments all the way up to multi-million dollar macro payments. The barriers to this business are much higher. For one, it takes more than just programming code. You have to be able to congeal the legal logic of the conventional law in equity contract into code. You have to be able to congeal the business logic into code, and you have to be able to implement it into the blockchain or whatever other underlying transmission mechanism you choose to utilize.
Once the race to negative zero is in full swing, a few of the wiser companies will wake-up and say "Hey, there has to be a better way, and we think we found it!". It is at that point Reggie Middleton's UltraCoin products and assets will shine. It is not hard to foresee that the entrenched companies (Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Western Union) may enter a bidding war with the new comers armed with material VC warchests (much more than we're seeing with $30 million investments of today - all over the guys who had the foresight to see the next evolutionary step in plain vanilla payments - smart transactions and self-executing digital contracts and transactions.
We're actively looking for financial and intellectual capital. If you, as an accredited investor, are looking for an opportunity in the higher end of the digital currency space, I think we should talk. In addition, if you are a higher level Java/C++ developer willing to take risk, we need to talk. I'm available at reggie at ultra-coin.com.
This is a FinTech panel I joined yesterday with Barry Silbert (SecondMarket, the company that facilitated trading Facebook's private stock, see also Facebook on SecondMarket) & Katina Stefanova (partner at Bridgewater Capital) on Bitcoin Volatility and the Opportunity/Threat to Money Center banks at the 2014 FinTech Startups Conference.
One interesting question that was asked of the panel, but not captured in this video, was...
Where do you think we are today in terms of the state-of-the-union of cryptocurrencies, in terms of acceptance, stability, and reliability as a form of value retention and value transfer in the economy?
Acceptance is increasing.
Stability is increasing.
Reliability as form of value retention asks the wrong question. What we need to do is redefine the concept of currency. The static store of value made plenty of sense with the “dumb” fiat model. Now, with the advent of these new inventions, we can “program” the money and create smart contracts that redefine the concept of value. I query, “Is the value in the currency’s embedded contract, or is the value in the currency itself.” More importantly, where is the line of demarcation between the two.
Example, with a “smart” currency, you can embed bitcoin with the value qualities of any fiat, asset, or even index, thereby further blurring the line.
Bloomberg ran a story earlier this week illustrating the human capital flight out of the Wall Street machine and into tech:
At elite universities, fewer MBA and finance candidates are willing to even consider a life of missed weddings, busted romances and deep-into-the-night deal negotiations. The percentage of Harvard Business School graduates entering investment banking, sales or trading dropped to 5 percent last year from 12 percent in 2006, while those entering technology almost tripled to 18 percent during that period.
At the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, the percentage of MBAs entering investment banking dropped to 13.3 percent last year from 26 percent in 2006, while those entering tech more than doubled to 11.1 percent.
Those of you who have been following finance from the Wall Street/Bay Street/Canary Wharf perspective realize that this is a cyclical occurence. Basically, Wall Street falls out of favor with MBA whiz kids every ten years or so. But!!!! This time is different. This time around, Wall Street et al is about to succumb to the destructive forces of technology that transformed, revolutionized, disintermediated, gutted and absolutely reinvigorated the media, news and retail industries.
That's right! The Internet Paradigm Shift has finally hit Global Finance... and it's going to hurt, and hurt a lot!
As many know, I've poured my time and resources into a start-up by the name of UltraCoin. Many have been clamoring for white papers and details, and I have been purposely secretive about such. The reason? I needed to entrency protection from my competition - the money center banks. How did I do this? Well...
I patented the future of Global Finance!
This video illustrates my presentation to both the mainstream and alternative media as I start my capital raising rounds from venture capitalists and strategic investers alike. Check it out!
This is my latest appearance on the Max Keiser show, wherein I announced the eminent launching of UltraCoin! Check it out!
So, I'm off to the races to raise money for UltraCoin, my uber-disruptive startup, and I come across the resistance of certain parties to take common stock. Now, the standard in the professional VC community is to take preferred stock with a stack of anti-dilutive measures, control premiums and liquidation preferences. VCs and their lawyers say this is the only way to do it because it protects them on the downside and allows them to maintain control of their investment and manage dilution on the upside. Basically, they say, it's a hedge. I have some very prominent, very successful and experienced investors coming in andg doing the right thing. The reason is because they "get it". My task is to educate the rest.
Marc Andreesen characterized VC start-up stock as an out-of-the-money call option on the success of the company. Well, I agree with this in part. The founders common stock is more like an OTC ATM call, or warrant, on the success of the company. The preferred stock, which is what most VCs go for, is more akin to a straddle consisting of an ATM long-dated OTC call paired with a long dated ATM put. This put is not free. It's not even cheap, and it is not as necessary if the deal is properly sourced and underwritten.
Now, I'm not the typical Fintech entrepenuer. I'm a little older than most, I'm probably better at forensic valuation than the vast majority (see Who is Reggie Middleton?), and I'm more than willing to point out when and where I think the establishment is doing something wrong. "Because everyone else is doing it" or "Because that's the way we've always done it" are not acceptible reasons.
Case in point, the preferred stock myth. Let's address the reasons given for demanding preferred stock.
These costs and detriments are real. Let's take the case of the very successful example of Facebook's VC funding and eventual IPO. Who do you think made more money in this deal, the founders/original common shareholders or the VCs who chose the preferred/hedged/put-call straddle route?
Here is the spreadsheet that generated the chart. Feel free to play with it yourself. Hopefully, more people will realize the value of going after a strong management team with a strong product amongst a disruptive opportunity. Focus more on the attainment of reward. Proper reward underwriting is its own risk management.
I got into a Twitter debate with Marc Andreesen of Netscape (the inventor of the commercial web browser) and Andreesen Horowitz (the VC fund that financed Facebook, Twitter, Skype & Zynga) fame.
He spit out what was mostly common sense, yet still flew in the face of what is taught in school, most text books and by most B school teachers. Here's how it went down, first ten tweets are from Marc, the rest are from me or my followers...
Here's where I chimed in and started spilling the VC secret sauce beans.
When entrepeneurs get all happy because they're recieving what thier VC said was an $8 million valuation for their Series A found, of which they're giving up 20% for $1.6M (gross expenses), they are naively comparing this to the dollars recieved in a common stock financing. This is fallacious. The control premiums, dividend claims and liquidation preferences often built into the preferred offerings really bring the economic valuation way down. If anyone doesn't believe me, ask their VC to take common founders stock instead of preferred on VC steroids at the quoted valuation. Get back to me with those answers, I'll sit here and wait.
Selling overpriced, negative real rate, Fed pumped up paper certificates in liue of cold hard cash basically does the same "price inflation thing" in the public markets. Now I know Marc invested in Facebook and made a ton of money, but the valuation that FB went to market at was simply a joke, see my mucho analytical rants - To wit:
at the IPO - The World's First Phenomenally Forensic Facebook Analysis - This Is What You Need Before You Invest, Pt 1 as well as The Final Facebook Forensic IPO Analysis: the Good, the Bad & the Ugly
and post-IPO - On Top Of The 2x-10x Return Had Off Of BoomBustBlog Facebook Research, Our Models Show How Much More Is Available... as well as...
- It's Time For Facebook Investors To Literally Face the Book (Value)?
- Facebook Bubble Blowing Justification Exercises Commence Today
- Facebook Options Are Now Trading, Or At Least The PUTS Are!
Now, that I've established how overvalued FB was (and how much money Marc made for his LPs), take a look at how much money FB really pays for a company like Whatsapp when it says it pays $19B...
I wrote on my blog... The Man Who Correctly Anticipated Facebook's IPO Value Knows Why Whatsapp Was Purchased
So many people can't differentiate the difference between what amounts to a structural cost, or effectively a disguised fixed expense (like what is now much of Apple's marketing and sales expense) and true business investment and reinvestment (which is what you have seen in Google with YouTube, Android, Grand Central, Glass, Driverless cars, Fiber, balloons and drones). The academic use of DCF simply exacerbates this problem by compounding the smeared differences.
Self expanatory...
Garbage in, garbage out! No?
To put it more verbosely - Most Accurate Apple Analysis Ever Pt 2, The Only Investor Accurately Calling To Short Apple Tells What's Next
Self explanatory...
And this goes back to that MBA education thing. Here's some more on the topic...
Reggie Middleton Illustrates Pitfalls of American Education Using His 5 yr Old Daughter
-
How To Profit From The Impending Bursting Of The ...
boombustblog.com/reggie.../6260-how-to-profit-from-the-impending-b...
Jan 7, 2013 - Many do not think of their education as an actual investment, but if you put .... Academia is primarily interested in the first, Reggie Middleton is ...
You +1'd this
-
How To Profit From The Impending Bursting Of The ...
boombustblog.com/reggie.../6258-how-to-profit-from-the-impending-b...
Jan 3, 2013 - You would have had a superior education and only been in the hole for $16,000, as well as having $160,000 .... Latest from Reggie Middleton.
You +1'd this
-
Calculate The Value & ROI Of Your College Education Now ...
boombustblog.com/reggie.../6284-calculate-the-value-roi-of-your-colleg...
Feb 12, 2013 - This is the 4th installment in the educationbubble series. This piece gets down to the ... About Knowledge How: College and University Education Valuation Software ..... By Reggie Middleton; Again, The Sell Side Analysts .
-
Which all brings us back to
15/Which goes right back to the start: Who are the people, what are the products, and how big is the market. That's the formula.
This debate all stemmed from my due diligence in deciding whether to approach venture capital firms for my UltraCoin "smart contract" startup. Since I plan to disintermediate the banking system, wholesale, I thought I better get some additional capital lined up.
That is a story in and of itself. I went to the crowdsourcing and Bitcoin community, and they really weren't feeling me. I then turned to my natural constituency, clients from my blog and of course we found Nirvana.
The board and the team that I'm building is outrageous, and I'm quite tempted to spill the beans right here. Alas, it's not quite time yet. As Marc said, its about... Who are the people, what are the products, and how big is the market. Well here 'ya go.
The Financial Nostradamus, serial enterpeneurial investor who's called nearly every major boom and bust in finance and technology over the past 8 years.
Contract and IP attorneys (all in one person) with over 15 years experience doing both!
My team of financial analysts whom I've worked with for 7 years,
The product - outrageous ZeroTrust, no counterparty risk, no credit risk, peer to peer financial asset trading with near real time settlement.
A board of advisors containing some of the most successful people in politics, finance and technology!!!
And how big is the market? Well...

For those who feel they have financial or intellectual capital to contribute to the cause, I'm still looking...
For those who didn't get the memo, I've been toiling away in my lab creating the world's first "investment bank, securities brokerage, asset manager, money transfer agent" in-a-box that allows users to perform all of theses functions themselves on a ZeroTrust (meaning you don't need to trust or even know the other side of the transaction), peer to peer basis.
Well, it appears as quite a few of the big boys and heavy weights have a similar idea and are in the market to make acquisitions. Wouldn't it be ironic if UltraCoin (my iconic venture) was acquired before it gets its seed round???!!!
[Facebook] The social network is only weeks away from obtaining regulatory approval in Ireland for a service that would allow its users to store money on Facebook and use it to pay and exchange money with others, according to several people involved in the process.
The authorisation from Ireland’s central bank to become an “e-money” institution would allow Facebook to issue units of stored monetary value that represent a claim against the company. This e-money would be valid throughout Europe via a process known as “passporting”.
Facebook has also discussed potential partnerships with at least three London start-ups that offer international money transfer services online and via smartphones: TransferWise, Moni Technologies and Azimo, according to three people involved in the discussions.
In the case of Azimo, Facebook offered to pay the company $10m to recruit one of its co-founders as a director of business development, according to people familiar with the situation.
Yes, this space is heating up. It makes me feel good! You see, the Visas, Mastercards, Western Unions and Paypals of the world make a lot of money selling a relatively cheap services for a relatively large amount. BUT!!!! The Goldmans and JP Morgans of the world make much more money by selling very deep margined products and services for a lot more while paying a lot less to create them. It is here where UltraCoin has staked its ground. As the competition amongst the big boys starts to heat up, they will want to crawl up the food chain and I already have the ladder built!
“Facebook wants to become a utility in the developing world, and remittances are a gateway drug to financial inclusion,” said a person familiar with the company’s strategy. Facebook recently passed 100m users in India, which is its largest national market outside the United States.
My last post on this topic illustrated how UltraCoin will operate in developing markets by allowing currency, stock and financial asset exposure trades of anywhere from $5 to $5 million, as well as sending money to others for just a little more than nothing, as excerpted from "Hardware IS Dead" Thesis Has Now Torn Through All Handset Providers & Now Everyone Can Act On It:
I've created an infrastructure that significantly expands these investment markets by allowing anyone, anywhere with an Internet connection (of almost any speed) to participate in almost any of the world's public financial markets. Taking the subject matter of this article into consideration, we can short Samsung on its own home exchange of Korea for nearly any amount, from $10 million US down to $8 ...
These same young investors can even hedge thier currency translation risk with a Korean Won US dollar forex pair, for 55 basis points!
Armed with the information from simply reading my blog posts, your brothers from Haiti or Botstwana can now take short positions in these (margin)doomed hardware manufacturers - taking the other side of the trade from these big name financial institutions that don't seem to read my writings.
These are young brothers from Haiti who sat through an UltraCoin lesson...
Back to the FT article:
It also comes as other internet groups – in particular, China’s Tencent and Alibaba – race to turn their sites into mobile payment platforms.
Google has reiterated its commitment to expanding its mobile payments and wallet products, which have yet to be widely adopted by consumers. It is registered in the UK to issue electronic money, in a process similar to the authorisation which Facebook is seeking in Ireland.
In 2013, the company [Facebook] facilitated $2.1bn worth of transactions, almost exclusively from games, according to documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Vodafone has acquired an e-money licence for the phone company to operate financial services in Europe.
“It’s great news that non-banks are challenging the traditional banking monopoly,” said Simon Deane-Johns, a UK-based lawyer and European payments expert at law firm Keystone Law.
It will be interesting to see how the potential bidding contest will form as these companies compete to build the next generation financial infrastructure. I believe that I am very well positioned, as excerpted from yesterday's missive:
These are interesting times indeed. For those who are not aware of how far I've come in transforming the way value is traded across geo-political and socio-economic lines, I urge you to view the following video and/or peruse the embedded presentation below it.
Related BoomBustBlog research
I called the Apple short before it became vogue! I called the Blackberry short beforethey became the industry whipping boy! I warned about Nokia and made clear that Samsung Will Be Ready To Do That Fruit Thing! How'd I know all of this? It's quite simple, I explained it all in 2012 - Smartphone Hardware Manufacturers Are Dead. Well, now the chickens continue to come home to roost, as per CNBC:
In order to deal with such pressures, Samsung appears to be pricing the Galaxy S5 lower than its predecessor S4, according to Kang, who has collected pre-order prices for the device from around the world.
"It reflects the trend of smart phone commoditization – Samsung will have to learn to create profits at a lower price point," Kang said.
Earlier this week, Samsung said it's on track to post its second straight quarter of profit decline, as slowing smartphone sales growth continued to weigh on earnings.
Samsung Electronics 1Q profit view just shy of estimates
The South Korean tech giant estimated that its January-March operating profit fell by 4.3 percent to 8.4 trillion won, slightly below an average forecast of 8.5 trillion won, according to Reuters.
I've created an infrastructure that significantly expands these investment markets by allowing anyone, anywhere with an Internet connection (of almost any speed) to participate in almost any of the world's public financial markets. Taking the subject matter of this article into consideration, we can short Samsung on its own home exchange of Korea for nearly any amount, from $10 million US down to $8 ...
These same young investors can even hedge thier currency translation risk with a Korean Won US dollar forex pair, for 55 basis points!
Armed with the information from simply reading my blog posts, your brothers from Haiti or Botstwana can now take short positions in these (margin)doomed hardware manufacturers - taking the other side of the trade from these big name financial institutions that don't seem to read my writings.
These are kids that I taught UltraCoin to during my trip to Haiti a couple of weeks ago. Before you assume, the kids are actually quite bright and adept at math, and yes - kdis can easily trade with UltraCoin. My kids have been doing it for months!
My UltraCoin project will nearly double the available potential investors able to profit from these markets. By making the ability to participate in multi-asset class prices moves bi-directionally (that's right, long and short) I will be increase the liquidity of said markets by almost 2 billion people, as per McKinsey:
I just had the pleasure of meeting this young lady from Botswana who's trying to spearhead Bitcoin adoption in her country. I've made friends and I'm going to supply her with the means to have the whole country trading a whole variety (UltraCoin can trade more than 10,000 tickers - stocks, bonds, options, futures, indices) of financial assets very soon.
PS Paying BoomBustBlog subscribers can download the latest beta as of Tuesday evening EST.
I'll leave it up to you to determine who'll win those trades. These are interesting times indeed. For those who are not aware of how far I've come in transforming the way value is traded across geo-political and socio-economic lines, I urge you to view the following video and/or peruse the embedded presentation below it.
Sep 6, 2013 - Smartphone Hardware Manufacturers Are DeadNov 29, 2012 - Two and a ... BoomBustBlog Mar 7, 2013 - applecutsabreandriod3d Two and a ...
Sep 27, 2013 - Here I go again – Hardware is Dead & Samsung Agrees Featured ... raw fundamentals and margins, let's look at the newest crop of hardware.
Nov 29, 2012 - Two and a half years ago I declared in my mobile computing wars series that Google would commoditized the mobile computing space, thereby ...
Dec 10, 2012 - Last week I told the world that hardwarevendors are DEAD! At least the fat margin business modelhardware vendors (like those whose name rhymes with Snapple). ... Related BoomBustBlog Subscription-only Research:.
UltraCoin is programmable money that allows counterparty risk free transactions. Create loans without banks, trades without brokers and contracts without lawyers - all available through your own personal digital wallet.
Bitcoin, the media frenzied digital currency that has gathered so much mindshare and pop culture attention, holds untold promises in the decentralization of money and the power that controls said money. Yet, for all of its untold promise, it's current form is riddled with problems that prevent it from being the practical replacement for the dollar or the euro,,, That is, until now!
Reggie Middleton's UltraCoin is a derivative layer that rides on top of Bitcoin, allowing Bitcoin users to perform heretofore undreamt of tasks such as:
If you like what you've read thus far, please look to the right to contribute and receive - or continue reading to get the heavy dose of UltraCoin!
For those of you who are either well versed in applied economics or simply don't wish to subject yourselves to my philosophical rant, scroll down to the heading "UltraCoin: About the Application".
From the days of sacks of cereal to be bartered (hence the origin of the Shekel) to pretty shiny things such cowry beads and gold from Africa, to silver dollars and gold Krugerands, money has primarily been physical identifiers of the transaction of physical goods and services.
This changed right about 1966 with the advent of the debit card, and even that heralded the use of "Digital money" that didn't have a physical form yet still commended physical goods and services.
This digital money was controlled by the big middlemen, the grand intermediaries of commerce and much of human life... the banks! Through server-centric, highly centralized systems, the banks served as both the middlemen and the lenders to almost every financial transaction made since 1966, and for hundreds (if not thousands) of years before that as well.
Then, a pseudonymic man known as Satoshi Nakamoto released into open source a protocol for a new form of money known as Bitcoin. Now, anyone who's browsed through the code knows that this is too much high level thinking for one man, no matter how smart. Satoshi Nakamoto is pseudonym for a group of technology companies whose businesses would benefit if the hegemony of the big money center banks were shaken some. While this is all conspiracy theory, I'm a conspiracy theorist who loves to eat the breadcrumbs he finds lying around. Let me sprinkle some back down for you... SA(msung)TOSHI(ba) NAKA(michi)MOTO(rola)! Well, anyway... This invention called Bitcoin was exquisitely elegant in the way it both provided for a very efficient digital currency that also comes with its high speed, low cost delivery system that itself comes part and parcel with its own high level security system.
The most elegant part of the new money? It doesn't require banks or any of the traditional middlemen! This is Bitcoin!
As elegant a solution as Bitcoin is, it still has some serious issues. One of the biggest issues is volatility. It's price is literally all over the place. Of course, this doesn't invalidate Bitcoin as a money alternative for the precursor to the US dollar (the continental note) was even worse. Alas, it does make Bitcoin's use as a standard medium of exchange cumbersome. I set out to solve this, among other problems because I see Bitcoin to finance as the Internet was to media!
UltraCoin is a crypto-currency (the group of money that Bitcoin belongs to) derivative application and management system. It is a one of a kind solution that is literally the most revolutionary thing to hit finance since the printing press. It allows its users to create zero trust (meaning the two sides to a deal do not have to know or trust each other), smart contracts governing the behavior of the underlying currencies, securities and assets. It allows exposure to be given back and forth between Bitcoin and traditional fiat currencies (conventional sovereign money, ex. USD or EUR), as well as hedging, speculation and capital mobility opportunities for its users.
A currency swap contract is an agreement to make a currency exchange between two parties. With this application one can create digital swap contracts between traditional fiat currencies like (i.e. USD, EUR, CNY) and crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin at zero interest. In addition, there is no need to physically exchange the currencies. The contract are entered into, and settled in cash. – denominated in the crypto-currency of choice (currently the system is set to only settle in Bitcoin, but that can change i the future). Most importantly, this transaction takes place on a Peer to Peer basis, meaning that the participants of the swap trade with each other directly, without the intermediation and accompanying counterparty risks and conflicts of interest that go along with it.
The swap contracts created using UltraCoin are called zero trust because the user is not required to trust the other party on the other side of the contract – or even know who the other party is. This is made possible by requiring the user to put collateral margin equal to 100 % of the principal amount when entering into the contract, thus eliminating any credit risk present in traditional swap contracts. This has profound implications in the way things are currently done.
More About Bitcoin
Bitcoin is the world’s first decentralized (no central authority or single point of weakness to be attacked, compromised or disintermediated) digital currency. By design, there is a known, immutable, fixed supply of bitcoins, similar to gold being available in limited quantity on earth. Bitcoins are digital, therefore you can instantly transfer them to anybody across the world. Finally, there is no financial institution, or bank, or company operating Bitcoin, just like there is no company in charge of "operating gold".
There is also no internet server to shut down to terminate Bitcoin. It exists merely as a distributed protocol likely running through an application on your computer, smart phone, tablet or (Google) glasses - which communicates with other Bitcoin users over the internet. A pure, Peer to Peer network of financial and data communication. How is this significant? UltraCoin, through Bitcoin and other digital currencies, allows one to totally sidestep banks in day to day financial operations. This means we cut out the middleman and you get to share his cut of the pie, while all the while circumventing the most inefficient and unnecessary bank rules and restrictions, i.e. inconvenient banking hours, onerous fees and ridiculously expensive charges.
Send $100 to your sister on the other side of the world on a Sunday afternoon for less than a penny, in near real time. No wire, PayPal or Western Union fees, no 3rd parties whatsoever – not even us! No banking hours, and no nonsensical restrictions on what you can do with your own money. As a small businessman/woman, or larger corporation, accept micropayments down to a fraction of a penny, thereby creating totally new business models that weren’t possible before due to extravagant processing, distribution and licensing fees.
This application to Kickstarter was unusually ironic, for Kickstarter forces you to use Amazon's payment system to clear payments from contributions and Amazon charges between 3%-5%. That means if we're wildly successful in raising funds here, Amazon will scrape up to $50,000 from every $1,000,000 that we raise. $50,000 is a lot! View the video above to see how much this Kickstarter campaign would have costs if I ran it through a Bitcon/UltraCoin setup. Hint:You'd need a calculator to figure out the zeros BEHIND the decimal point!
UltraCoin, as mentioned previously allows its users to create “zero trust” swap “smart contracts” for Bitcoin with traditional fiat currencies and vice versa, thus allowing hedging and speculation opportunities for its users. The application is a quick 1 minute download on even relatively slow connections and must be installed on the computer of the users. Below is a snapshot of the dialog box for registering the swap request (creating an ask) on the UltraCoin client.
With bitcoins gaining more popularity and acceptance among global business communities, the future of the currency is expected to witness Bitcoin being labeled as one of the leading globally accepted trade currencies. However bitcoin is a very volatile currency. As such there exists a very strong incentive to hedge its value relative to more established and stable currencies.
As of today, bitcoin continues to coexist with many conventional currencies like dollars, euros, yen, etc. Naturally people & organizations will be required to preserve the money value of bitcoins in terms of other conventional currencies. UltraCoin will allow businesses as well as individuals to effectively hedge their positions in bitcoin against conventional currencies and vice versa. The application will also offer users to speculate on market movements, i.e. if one believes that Bitcoin is about to rise/decline in value against USD he can enter into a swap to give/receive the bitcoin side of the contract and monetize their outlook of the currency movement.
Businesses accepting/paying payments in bitcoin, individuals and almost everybody with current and expected exposure to bitcoin. This diagram depicts how any merchant receiving bitcoins can use this application to hedge its bitcoin exposure.
Other Benefits:- Businesses or individuals can also utilize the UltraCoin for exploiting differential interest rates prevailing in different geographies.
Similarly one can also use this application to take advantage of high yield investment opportunities available in other parts of the world by remitting money from low yield geographies to high interest rate geographies. As Turkey has recently near doubled its rates, with many emerging market economies poised to do the same (here’s to you, China) - Argentina, Puerto Rico, et. al., and even the bankrupt city of Detroit. These will not be the only environment prepared UltraCoin users to speculate.
Darest I say this is the age where individuals bailout out the state, and do so on their own terms? My, how things have changed!
Parties who are domiciled in free flowing capital hostile states that have tight capital controls, ex. China, India, and now France with its 75% effective wealth confiscation scheme, etc. that have banned or limited BTC trading by banks and/or individuals can take advantage of the UltraCoin Zero Trust contracts to gain multi-currency exposure without violating the law (this is not legal advice, and the counsel of an attorney is strongly recommended).
Take note that the systems with the tightest capital controls have been the one’s exhibiting the most aggressive stance to bitcoin. Unfortunately, they don’t seem to understand what Bitcoin is and what it can do. Cyprus banks closed on a Friday and announced confiscation of bank assets over the weekend. UltraCoin contracts could have been used to move monetary value outside of the Cyprus banking system assuming the participants had a store of Bitcoin (it is rumored that this is how some of the Russian money was removed over the weekend).
Let’s assume a small businessman would like to purchase $1M euro worth of bitcoin, yet is concerned that the BTC volatility may cause more of a loss than the Cypriot capital controls. He buys the BTC then hedges his large BTC position into EUR. He proceeds to do that with a quarter of his monthly cash flows, building up a sizeable, fully hedged position in cyberspace and on the blockchain (thus, effectively offshore) and outside of the fragile Cyprus banking system.
The Cyprus banks pull the trigger to confiscate funds and the Russian bank depositor has significant funds mobile and ready to deliver anywhere in the internet connected world within minutes, even on a Sunday afternoon.
Another example of dealing with a country with tight capital controls would be India. India has extremely tight capital controls that have (IMHO) hampered its economic progress relative to China, despite having similar populations and the significant advantage of a large indigenous English speaking population stemming from British occupation (easier to do business with the larger capitalist nations when more of your constituents speaks the native tongue).
India has effectively outlawed trading in bitcoin, but Indians can still participate in the evolution of money by taking advantage of the liberalized remittances scheme of the Central Bank of India; a person can remit up to 75,000 USD offshore annually. These monies can end up in a Bitcoin friendly jurisdiction (amazingly enough, like the US), and be used to purchase BTC hedged, via UltraCoin ZeroTrust contracts, back into rupees or the currency of choice. This can also work the other way around, which would actually be quite advantageous to the Indian government and potentially make them rethink the real world practicality of capital controls.
Even in a country that has capital controls and fears Bitcoin may threaten its banks, a decentralized near friction free currency exchange would be beneficial solely due to international remittances from expats in foreign workers. A real world example are Indians that I know who lose significant money because of PayPal and Western Union fees (not to mention bank wire fees). Indians can send UltraCoin ZeroTrust contract rupee locked BTC home on a deferred basis.
The registered exchange or ATM in India however could only be one-way so that it only accepts BTC from the Indian general public in exchange for rupees and not the other way around.
By executing swaps against various fiat, UltraCoin allows users to trade in a pure P2P fashion, completely by passing centralized exchanges as well as the counterparty risks, costs and redemption delays that go along with them. By borrowing money before the trade is made, users can even lever up to gear returns. In addition…
There are a plethora of built-in trading tools available only from the UltraCoin client...
Besides the above mentioned benefits, the application could also help in facilitating: Peer-to-peer investment / finance (instantaneously and at extremely low cost) Smart contracts (contracts enforced by software) Binding arbitrations Enforcement of non-financial transactions Investments across regions (without restriction) A list of parties (not exhaustive) that can benefit from the application:
We are developing UltraCoin clients/wallets for Glass, Android, Desktop and iOS.
Reggie Middleton is widely recognized in international media (both mainstream and fringe) as a maverick at the intersection of finance and technology...
What unique challenges might we face AFTER the project is successfully funded?
Well, to begin with, this is software development. Software development rarely comes in on time AND on budget - at least not in my experience . With that being said, I have tied up a material and significant amount of my own capital in this project. It is my baby, and I am watching over it like a hawk. What makes it unique is that it is not only a software development project, but a financial analysis and global macroeconomic theory venture as well. To make things even more “Star Trekkish”, it’s akin to a real time R&D experiment that’s slated to go into production next month. There are no historical references to learn from, not precedent to guide us. We are treading on new ground here ladies and gentleman. This leads to another pointed risk - ...
Programming talent...
Guys and girls (who are even harder to find) are quite scarce at this level and and in this knowledge sphere. Nobody really has any experience because this stuff is all brand spanking new. If we lose a key programmer or two it can set development back for weeks. Trust me, I know from experience! Alas, I am keeping my finger on the pulse of the Bitcoin community and have gained a small modicum of notoriety in the same. I'm confident I will be able to attract competent expertise, although a learning curve may ensue. After all, we’re on the bleeding edge – and on that note, we are brought to the next material risk…
The law, compliance and legislation…
The laws and the politicians/regulators/courts who legislate/regulate/adjudicate have not moved nearly as fast as the technology has, and the technology has moved so fast that it can’t even keep up with itself! Thus, where there is uncertainty, there is risk. Alas, where there’s risk there’s opportunity. I plan to take any excess funds and spearhead an effort to lobby and set a clear framework and risk free precedent for Bitcoin businesses to operate within. Negative repercussion from politicians/regulators/courts will stem from a lack of information, for if the true merits of Bitcoin and its derivatives are actually known, then these actors will welcome the efficiencies that it will bring both our country (the US) and other capitalistic countries abroad.
Speaking of capitalism, which brings us to the next major risk, and that is competition. My major competitors will be/are those very same actors who stand to be disintermediated, either in part or in whole, by this new technology. Just as the typewriter was walloped by the PC, and the postal service was sideswiped by email, the financial services industry will feel the pain of the Coins! This is a very powerful, very well connected, and last but not least… very aggressive industry. They will not take such an affront laying down. Of course, the bane of large industry is the swift, innovative risk takers that these large industrial giants once were themselves when they usurped power from their predecessors. Beating the banks at their own game is not only possible, it’s likely given the momentum and direction of technology.
It’s simply the Titans, the Greek gods and Prometheus recast, retold and relived once again – but this time with a different twist as fire is given to the common man and he wields it to defend himself and UltraCoin comes to the rescue as Hercules!
Reggie Middleton, as told through Wikipedia...
Reggie Middleton as told through BoomBustBlog...